Poll: Schmitt leads Valentine in U.S. Senate race

Exclusive polling shows Republican Eric Schmitt ahead of Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine for the...
Exclusive polling shows Republican Eric Schmitt ahead of Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine for the open U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.(ky3)
Updated: Sep. 19, 2022 at 6:00 PM CDT
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CAPE GIRARDEAU, Mo. (KFVS) - Exclusive polling shows Republican Eric Schmitt ahead of Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine for the open U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.

The SurveyUSA poll has Schmitt defeating Valentine by an 11-point margin to succeed Republican Roy Blunt, who is retiring. If the vote were held today, Schmitt would take 47%, Valentine would have 36% and 4% of respondents would vote for another candidate. Of those surveyed, 14% said they were still undecided.

Among men, Schmitt leads by 19 points, but he leads by 4 points among women. The two candidates run evenly among voters under age 50, but Schmitt has an advantage among those over age 50. Schmitt leads by 20 points among white voters. Valentine leads by 58 points among African American voters.

Schmitt leads in southeast Missouri, southwest Missouri, and the northern part of the state. Valentine leads in Kansas City and in greater St. Louis.

Schmitt leads in voters who feel inflation, the economy, immigration and border security are the most important issues this fall. Valentine leads those who said abortion is the most important issue this election. Those who support the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade are more likely to vote for Schmitt, while those who oppose the decision support Valentine.

About the SurveyUSA poll

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Missouri adults online between Sept. 14 and Sept. 18, 2022. Of those, 830 respondents were identified as registered voters. Of the registered voters, 670 were determined to be likely to vote in the November 8 general election and were polled.

The sample was provided by Lucid Holdings LLC. of New Orleans. The pool was weighted to US Census targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.

The polling was conducted exclusively for GRAY Television’s Missouri stations (KMOV-TV in St. Louis, KCTV-TV in Kansas City, KYTV-TV in Springfield, KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, WGEM-TV in Quincy, IL; and KYOU-TV in Ottumwa, IA), and for KRCG-TV in Jefferson City and KOAM-TV in Pittsburg, KS.