We’re going to be experiencing two major systems over the next 3 days. The first will bring lots of rain; the second could finally deliver a little snow. In the short term, rain will move in from the southwest by about midnight…and could become heavy at times with occasional thunderstorms from late tonight through Monday evening. Our southern counties are outlooked for a marginal risk of severe, but heavy downpours over already wet ground could be the bigger issue. Models continue to show about 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. With a warm front splitting the area Monday afternoon, there could be a very wide temperature range as well, with highs in the 40s north to 60s south. The severe risk will be higher south of the front in the Bootheel into Tn and Ky.
After a break on Tuesday….a weaker but much cooler system looks to move through on Wednesday. This still looks like a moderate ‘rain changing to snow’ type system. Heavy snow does not look likely, but some areas could get an inch or three of accumulation by evening…so the evening drive could get very slick.