We’re in for a warm, lazy, almost summer-like pattern for the next several days, as we get stuck on the west side of an upper ridge. Light southerly flow at all levels will keep it very warm and humid, with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Pin-pointing exactly when thunderstorms might occur will be difficult as there will be no major triggers or boundaries to focus on. But overall, the best chance of stronger storms will be in the afternoon and early evening hours due to instability. SPC has the Heartland in a marginal risk of severe for today….probably will be the same for Sunday and Monday.
With little day to day change in the overall pattern, there is not much variation in the 7 day outlook. We may manage to cool down and dry out a bit by next weekend as the flow becomes northwesterly, but even this is not a certainty. In the meantime, it looks like a long, humid, summer-like week ahead with daily chances of thunderstorms. Actual highs in the 80s will combine with dew points near 70 to give us heat index numbers in the low 90s during the afternoon hours.