It is a dry and humid morning, though light showers in the outer circulation north of TS Barry are as close as SW Tennessee and NE Arkansas this morning and will likely begin moving into our region this afternoon and evening. However, most of the region will have a warm, humid but mainly dry start to the day today…with clouds and a few showers or storms moving in from the south this afternoon and evening. Heavy rains are not expected today. As what’s left of Barry move in tonight and tomorrow rain will increase from south to north…and Monday will be a breezy and wet day…though temperatures will be very mild for mid-July….with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. It looks like much of Monday will feature light to moderate ‘steady’ rains….but the chance of thunderstorms looks to increase Monday night into Tuesday especially if we start to get some breaks in the clouds. The risk of severe storms is low but not zero Monday night into Tuesday. The bigger threat continues to be heavy rainfall, with most forecasts indicating about 2 to 6 inches of rain for our region….less to the north and more to the south. Flash flood watches are in effect through Tuesday for much of the region.
As ‘Barry’ lifts off to the northeast by Wednesday morning we are in for a period of hot and very humid weather. There could still be a few lingering storms on Wednesday but upper ridging combined with southwest winds will keep it mainly dry but very steamy Thursday and Friday. Models continue to show a weak cold front sweeping through next Saturday, bringing a break in the humidity at least for a day or two.