First Alert Sunday Evening Outlook

FIRST ALERT ACTION DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY

First Alert 5pm forecast 7/14

Main weather story is threat of heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms as remnants of Barry move over the area tonight through Tuesday. We already rain and embedded heavy thunderstorms moving northward into our southern counties this evening. This will gradually spread northward overnight. With the center of low pressure moving north through Arkansas Monday and into southern MO on Tuesday, a conveyor belt of tropical moisture will be streaming up the Mississippi Valley and providing for heavy rain. There will also be a low-level severe storm threat at times, especially Monday evening into Tuesday as low-level shear becomes conducive to quick tornado spin-ups. Monday will also be unusually cool and breezy, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Easterly winds could gust to 25 or 30 mph at times. By Tuesday we’ll be transitioning from steadier precip into more scattered showers and storms….and a bit more sunshine will lead to warmer temps and a better chance of strong storms. Total rainfall progs continue to range in the 2 to 6 inch range, with local variation likely depending on banding. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for much of the region. Flash flooding and river flooding are both threats.

As the system moves away Tuesday night, we’ll quickly ridge out, dry out and warm up. We are in for 3 or 4 days of very hot and humid but mostly rain-free weather for the second half of the week. Models have been hinting at a cool-down by early next week but that is not a sure thing. Could be in fro a period of very hot, humid and dry weather ahead.

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