Big weather stories this morning are the threat of strong T'storms later today and into tonight...and then the wet and stormy pattern late in the weekend into next week.
SPC has now upgraded entire area to a slight risk of severe for Day 1....despite only modest instability and shear. In any event....active weather should be approaching from the west late this afternoon and moving through as a developing squall line this evening and early tonight. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are greatest threat.
Friday and Saturday will be tranquil and dry....and quite nice...as we approach a problematic pattern for next week. Friday will be a beautiful day....a bit warmer and more humid by Saturday afternoon.
Stormy and wet....
Models are still struggling with complicated timing issues...but bottom line is that a deep and slow-moving upper trough will be approaching late in the weekend and moving slowly through the region next week. Not sure when the actual 'cold front' with the trough will make it through the Heartland....but behind the front we'll switch from warm/stormy to cool/showery. Right now it looks like we could have 2 or 3 rounds of strong to possibly severe T'storms from late Sunday thru early Tuesday.
In addition....rainfall amounts are threatening to be quite substantial with this prolonged pattern. Latest 7-day QPF is showing 5 to 7 inches of rain in our area.